Final Table Predictions for the EPL
In a previous post I looked at how the EPL league table evolves over a season, showing that we already have a decent idea of how the final league table will look after just a third of the season. I’ve now taken that analysis a step further and built a simple model for predicting the total number of points each team will accumulate over the season (and therefore their final rankings). What follows is a short summary of how the model works; I've provided more technical detail at the end. Season simulations Each team starts with their current points total. I then work my way through the fixture schedule (currently 260 matches), simulating the outcome of each game. Results are generated based on the Elo rankings of each team – which I update after each simulated match – and the benefits of home advantage (scroll down to the last section for more details). At the end of the ‘season’, I tally up the final points totals for each team. This process is repeated 10,000 times to e